Labour voters say they would prefer the government to avoid cuts to services, even if that means increases to taxes or borrowing
Tomorrow, chancellor Rachel Reeves will report the outcome of the 2025 Spending Review, which will determine day-to-day spending for government departments for the next three financial years, as well as spending on planned investments for the next four.
This review is against a difficult backdrop for Rachel Reeves, with YouGov polling for Sky News showing that just 12% of Britons believing she is doing a good job as chancellor, while a majority (53%) feel she is doing poorly in the role. Even among Labour voters, just 28% are positive about Reeves’ tenure at the Treasury, while a similar 32% feel she is doing a bad job as chancellor.
The ‘difficult choices’ Reeves says she is having to make are likely partly responsible for these poor ratings. These ‘tough decisions’ have not come to an end, with it expected that some departments will be facing further budget cuts as part of the review. But is this what Britons want?
Do Britons support increases to taxes, spending or borrowing?
As a whole, Britons are divided on what the government’s overall tax and spend strategy should be. YouGov polling for The Times shows a third (33%) would like overall levels to stay roughly where they are, while a similar 30% would like to see an increase in spending on public services, even if this means an increases in taxes. A smaller 17% of the public would choose tax cuts at the expense of spending.
Among Labour voters, though, things lean more towards more spending, with 51% favouring increases to taxes and spending, roughly twice the 24% who want levels to remain about the same. A similar picture can be seen among Green voters (50% vs 24%), while Lib Dems also lean towards increases over existing levels by a margin of 41% to 31%.
By contrast, nearly half of Conservative voters (46%) want levels to remain broadly where they are, relative to 23% who favour cuts and 15% who want increases. Reform UK voters are split 36% to 34% between existing levels and cuts to both taxes and spending.
The problem for Reeves is that Labour’s pre-election promises not to cut back key services, not to raise taxes on working people and not to increase government borrowing are all increasingly difficult to fulfil, meaning that at least one may have to be broken.
Of the three contradictory stances, 37% of Britons say it is best the government avoid cuts to services, even if it means rises in the other two. This compares to 29% who would rather the government avoids tax rises, even if this meant spending cuts or increased borrowing, and 16% would prefer the government to avoid borrowing more, even if this means spending cuts or tax increases.
Again, Labour voters opt for prioritising services, with 55% saying they’d prefer the government to avoid cuts at all costs, a stance also held by 58% of Lib Dems and 63% of Green voters.
Reform UK and Conservative voters, however, tend to favour avoiding tax rises, with 46% of Reform voters and 40% Conservatives believing they should be prevented, even if that means spending cuts or borrowing increases.
If the government does take Labour voters’ preferred stance of avoiding cuts to services, 58% of Britons say it is more important for Labour to keep their promises not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, compared to 23% who say it is more important they stick to their pledge not to borrow more money.
Labour voters do not disagree, similarly favouring no tax rises by 58% to 27%.
Where do Britons want more spending and savings?
Of course, government spending is not a single unit that must go up and down as one. As part of the spending review, some departments will see increases in spending, while others will see cuts – a process that has been toughly fought in Whitehall over the last few months.
Of the areas polled, healthcare is the one Britons most believe should see a spending increase, with 72% believing the government should be spending more on it. Nearly half of the public (45-48%) also think the government should be looking to spend more on policing, education and social care.
International aid is a top target for cuts, with 65% of Britons believing the government should be looking to save money there. Around four in ten Britons (40-41%) also want savings to be found on welfare benefits and on reducing carbon emissions.
Of course, such preferences are likely to result in accusations of being unrealistic. The NHS accounts for around 40% of departmental spending, while international aid, which the government has already announced cuts to, is around 1%.
Regardless, voters for all five main parties are more likely to favour increased spending than cuts to the healthcare, social care, education and policing budgets, while being more in favour of cuts than increased spending to international aid.
A significant increase in defence spending has already been previously announced last week in the separate Strategic Defence Review. A majority of Britons (54%) believe this increase was the right thing to do, while just one in six (18%) say it was the wrong thing to do.
Support for the increase was highest among Conservatives, 73% seeing the increase in defence spending review as the right thing to do, though 63% of Reform UK voters, 56% of Lib Dems and 54% of Labour voters agree. Green voters, however, are split, with just 28% seeing the defence increase as a good thing, against 34% seeing it as a bad thing.
See the full results here and here
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Photo: Getty
